Sunday, January 29, 2012

Postcards from Mobile: Will the Cowboys Have Quality Safety Options in the Draft?

Part three of this week's chat with the National Football Post's Wes Bunting brings encouraging reports on two free safety prospects. 

Cowboys Nation:  I want to discuss the safety class.  You've given lukewarm reviews on this entire class, the strong safeties and the free safeties, all year long.  This week however, your NFP buddy Matt Bowen had some positive reports on Boise State's George Iloka as a free safety.  Bowen played safety for several years in the NFL, so I give his opinion a lot of weight.  Today, you listed Iloka as one of the five players who helped themselves the most during Senior Bowl week.

Iloka has Roy Williams' dimensions.  He's 6'3'' and 222 lbs., but it appears that he can run better.  What did you see this week?

Wes Bunting:  He's a better athlete than Roy Williams.  He's 6'3'', so he'll get a bit leggy in and out of his breaks.  But he's instinctive.  He finds the football well and it doesn't take him as long to collect himself and you see a burst and good closing speed from him.

There were many times on Monday when he was in cover-1, playing centerfield, where he put himself around the football;  if this were a live game he would be killing the receiver or he's making a play on the football.  That stood out to me.

When he's asked to turn and run he might lose a little space but once he gets his legs going he's fine.  He's instinctive and he gets early jumps on the football, so he plays faster, even though he's 6'3''.  Plus he can tackle, so I think you can play him inside the box.

He's also played some cornerback for Boise State last year, so I think he's one of these hybrid d-backs who can be an Aaron Hernandez-killer, or a Gronk-killer, or a Dallas Clark-killer, somebody who can match up with these new style tight ends.  He's got corner skills, but he's a big 6'3''.  He can be somebody who can really help you with these guys.

CN:  Where does he go now?  You had him as a 3rd rounder before.  Has he played himself into the 2nd round, especially with this safety class, which isn't very deep?

WB:  I still see him 2nd-3rd, but if runs well at the Combine, and that's possible, I could see him in the 2nd.

CN:  So you don't have qualms about him playing deep?  Most teams now ask their safeties to play up or play back depending on the formation they're facing.  You're comfortable matching this guy down the field with tight ends or slot receivers?

WB:  Yes, because he's instinctive.  He finds the football.  I think he would be fine.

CN:  Is he the 2nd safety off the board now, after Mark Barron?

WB:  Yeah, it's down to him and Markelle Martin, who had a good week too.  I'm going to watch them again on tape.  I'd say Iloka I like more because of his cover skills.  I'd say Martin is a bit quicker in and out of his breaks.  I want to see these two run at the Combine, but they're the 2nd and 3rd safeties this year.  There is not a lot separating them.

CN:  What caught my attention was a tweet you made a few weeks ago when you reviewed Boise State tape.  You talked about Iloka matching up very well against tight ends in the red zone. That's such a big part of the game now, with the Jermichael Finleys and Jimmy Grahams catching fades and playing alley-oop with their quarterbacks in that part of the field.  

WB:  Iloka is very comfortable in press man.  I remember watching Kam Chancellor at the Senior Bowl a couple of years ago in the red zone drills.  He was the best press DB down there, because he didn't have to cover a ton of ground.  He was physical.  He had good short-area quickness.  I can see Iloka doing the same things.

CN:  Kam Chancellor made the Pro Bowl this year. One more name before we move to corners.  I saw Trenton Robinson mentioned in several Senior Bowl reports.  What did you see from him?

WB:  He can sit into his stance and drop.  When the ball is in front of him he stays compact.  He's got a burst.  He's got good range.  He can click and close on the football.

I do see some stiffness when he's asked to turn and run.  He didn't show a great feel.  There were a couple of wheel routes run against him and he didn't take great angles to the ball.  He allowed Bradie Ewing, the Wisconsin fullback, to get behind him because he was stiff when he turned to run, so he gave up steps vertically down the field.

That's not the kind of guy I would trust consistently in the deep half.  He can run well but he's tight when he has to change directions.

CN:  In your opinion, will one of Iloka and Martin be available in the early 3rd?

WB:  I'd say it's possible.  I'd say it's a 50/50 shot right now, but let's see how they run.

Postcards from Mobile: The Curious Case of Bruce Irvin

Part two of my post Senior Bowl chat with the National Football Post's Wes Bunting covers West Virginia end Bruce Irvin, a Cowboys player of interest who went missing in Mobile.

Cowboys Nation:  Early in the week, you tweeted about Bruce Irvin . You said 3-4 teams were asking where he was.  What happened to him?

Wes Bunting:  He was never invited.  That's what I'm hearing.  I don't know why, or what happened.

CN:  So everything is riding on this guy's Combine, and pro day?

WB:  I talked to a number of scouts, and all these 3-4 teams were angry.  They wanted to see this guy play.  I was telling you I thought this was where he could come down and dominate, especially on the North squad where the offensive tackles were so bad.  And now?  We'll see.  I had to lower my grade a bit because there are question marks.  I told you this was what I planned.  I floated him and was going to adjust based on how he played in Mobile, and now I have to drop him because there are questions of how he fits in a 3-4 scheme as an outside linebacker.

We'll see him at the Combine, but he's a 2nd-3rd round guy now.  There was a buzz about him among the scouts.  They were asking why he wasn't invited, and then a linebacker dropped out and they brought in Demario Davis, who I like a lot, but I would rather have seen Bruce Irvin.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Cowboys Mock 6.0: The Senior Bowl Edition

George Iloka
Earlier today, I posted my anticipated blueprint for the spring, with Dallas looking for a center and a pass rusher in free agency, and playing to the strengths of the draft, cornerback and guard.

Here are three mini-mocks, each going 3 rounds deep and using Wes Bunting's notes from Senior Bowl workouts.

Mock 1:
1.  David DeCastro, G, Stanford,
2.  Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
3.  George Iloka, S, Boise State

Most every Cowboys fan knows DeCastro by now.  Boykin ran a close second to Janoris Jenkins among the corners in the Senior Bowl workouts, according to several observers, and looks tough in press coverage.  Iloka is my new pet cat, a big safety who played a lot of cornerback for Boise State. He had strong workouts in Mobile and showed range and instincts playing centerfield.  He helped himself as much as any player this week.

Mock 2
1.  Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
2.  Kelechi Osememe, G, Iowa State
3.  Alameda Ta'amu,  NT, Washington

Jenkins will have to convince all his potential employers that he can stay on the field. There's no question he can play.  He was the top corner at Mobile and should be the 3rd corner selected.  Osemele's tackle game split observers.  Some think he lacks the feet to play on the edge.  Some liked him.  The Sporting News' Russ Lande tweeted this:


Everyone agreed that Osemele was dominant as a guard, and has the skills to play the pulling guard.  He may have played himself into the late 1st. Ta'amu lists in the 2nd-3rd range.  He may be gone by Dallas' 3rd, but he's a central-casting 3-4 nose.

Mock 3
1.  Dre Kirkpatrick, CB,  Alabama
2.  George Iloka, S, Boise State
3.  Bruce Irvin, OLB/DE, West Virginia

The Cowboys brass probably wouldn't mind at all if Kirkpatrick fell to 14.  I put Iloka in the 3rd round of mock 1.0, but he may not last that long after his Senior Bowl week.  He's running with Markelle Martin to be the second safety off the board.  Iloka's size, cover skills and match-up versatility make him my choice.  Irvin was missed at Mobile (much more on this later).  Unless Irvin wows people at the Combine and at his pro day, the draft board take off Wes predicted for him won't occur. That means some team could get a 3rd round steal.

Why not follow the Giants plan and load up on rushers?

Teasing Out the Cowboys Off-season Blueprint

Chris Myers
Wes Bunting gave me intriguing reports on many Cowboys players of interest this week, but this was his most interesting point:

Wes Bunting:  The one thing I wanted to tell you that I was hearing from Dallas people, the one thing that was going on was DB.  That's what I heard, the position they're focusing on first and foremost is DBs. 
Cowboys Nation:  That's seeping through.  I'm getting that impression, from what I've seen and read.  Does this mean they're looking to go for one in the first, or does this mean that they'll lean on the incredible depth at the corner spot and maybe get one in the 2nd or 3rd, or take DBs in both. 
WB:  For all we know, it's BS and they're trying to get misleading info out there, but that's what I heard, that DB is the biggest concern for them.

Let's piece together the crumbs of data available and try to tease out a free agent, draft two-step plan for the Cowboys.

Here's what we have:

1.  Bunting's report that Dallas is making defensive backs a priority.  We know the cornerback spot looks deep.  Bunting also have some encouraging reports on two free safety prospects who now look like 2nd or 3rd round prospects.  I'll have more on them Monday.

2.  Jerry Jones' admission late this week that he will spend freely once the free agent period begins.  Several different sources have claimed he could have up to $20 million in cap money to throw around.

3.  ESPN Dallas' Bryan Broaddus' recent claim that internal conversations about the offensive line have focused on center, not on guards:



Broaddus worked for the Cowboys as a scout and has excellent contacts within the scouting department.  I find this statement fully credible.

Let's take statement three and work backwards.  Center makes sense as a free agent target for several reasons.  Some good centers will be available in March.  Signing a Scott Wells or a Chris Myers could probably be accomplished for $5-6 million per season, if you consider recent free agent center deals and the fact that Wells and Myers are both 30.  Compare this to the contract top guard Carl Nicks can demand.  He's 25 and will want -- and will probably get -- yearly money on par with or exceeding his teammate Jahri Evans'. He gets $8 million per.

From a draft standpoint, it's much safer to fill the center need in free agency.  Dallas needs an immediate, professional level upgrade there.  The only center in the draft class seemingly capable to playing this well in 2012 is Wisconsin's Peter Konz.  If Dallas tries trading down to get him, it risks losing him, leaving itself again reliant on the Phil Costas and Kevin Kowalskis for another year.  Dallas could just select Konz at 14, but would it leave higher rated players on the board doing so?

Right now, I'm penciling center onto to my free agent wish list, along with backup quarterback.

A third consideration is that a modest priced center and a lower-ticket backup QB still leave the Cowboys room to pursue a big ticket defensive player.  No 2012 free agent corner looks worthy of a Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan Joseph-level deal, but Jerry could swing his checkbook if a Calais Campbell, a Cliff Avril or a Mario Williams escaped the franchise tag.  All are either 25 or 26.  All have consistently sacked opposing quarterbacks.

From an age and efficiency standpoint, I'm putting pass rusher atop my defensive wish list.

If the Cowboys can land that rusher and a center, they fill two of their biggest needs without blocking or rendering redundant picks they could make in the 1st and 2nd round.  If a David DeCastro sits atop their board at 14, they could take him without hesitation.  Fans may argue that signing a Nicks and drafting a DeCastro would upgrade the line, but going that route would still leave Dallas vulnerable at center (think of the drop in performance recent lines showed when Andre Gurode was subbed by Cory Proctor). And Nicks' big deal would lessen the funds Jerry has to chase a rusher.

Filling these two roles would let Dallas go for a corner and a safety high in the draft, perhaps with the first two picks, and still have guard options in all of the early rounds.

That's how I'm seeing it today -- a rusher and a center in free agency and a heavy dose of D-back in the first four rounds.

Next:  Three 3-round mini mocks built off this blueprint, and Wes Bunting discusses Janoris Jenkins and the rest of the Senior Bowl cornerback class.  

Friday, January 27, 2012

Postcards from Mobile: Wes Bunting Talks Cowboys Senior Bowl Rush Prospects

Quinton Coples
Part one of this week's chat with the National Football Post's Wes Bunting covers the big-name pass rushers on the Senior Bowl squad. 


Cowboys Nation:  Let's start with the sexy names.  You were there so you didn't see the NFL Network coverage we were watching, but you know every year somebody or somebodies get the extra press.  This year it was the South team's defensive line, with Quinton Coples, Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Brandon Thompson.

Reading your colleagues comments it seems a real Coke vs. Pepsi discussion when it comes to Upshaw and Ingram.  How did you see them playing?  What are your re-assessments of those guys and what did you hear down there about them? Add Coples to your rankings, since those three worked together.

Wes Bunting:  I'd say the most physically talented, and if he's to hit his ceiling he's the best, is Coples.  He's 6'6'', he's 285.  He can get after the passer however he wants.

I'd say the highest floor player is Upshaw.  You know what you're getting.  He's a power player.  The one thing he did better than I thought he would, was show more of a first step off the edge from a 3-point stance.  He did a nice job turning the corner with a little bend, which impressed me.  And then he'll get you where he's you think he's going around the edge, then he'll turn his speed move into a power move and just run over a tackle, which he did a couple of times.  He's the safest, I'd say.

Ingram is the least impressive prospect physically, but he's the most natural pass rusher of the three, which is funny because I think he was recruited as a running back.  He had the ability to work the speed rush and bend around the edge.  He was sudden on the inside when they asked him to work a counter move.  He's got this nifty little spin rush, and he worked a bull rush.  That's four different ways he could get after the quarterback.

I thought all three were very good.  They're all sure 1st round grades.  I'm going to move Upshaw up in my ratings just a little bit because he's so safe, and so powerful.  You should have seen him at the weight in.  He's strapped together. He's this little chunky guy, but shredded.

I thought Brandon Thompson (Clemson) was very good as well.  He wasn't talked about as much, from what I've seen, but he was very good as well.

CN:  Has Thompson solidified his place in the 1st, after his Senior Bowl week?

WB:  I'd say he's in the 25 to 40 range.  I wouldn't have any qualms picking him in the 1st, because he's one of the few defensive tackles who sure; you know what you're getting with him.  I can see him getting some love as a 5 technique.  Ideally I see him as a 3-technique or slanted on the nose in a 4-3.  He can do a lot of things.

CN:  Here's a more generic question.  The public is seeing a lot of these guys for the first time.  Is there a tendency to over-react to their Senior Bowl performances, and move a guy way up, or drop one way down, based on three weeks of practice in front of the cameras?

WB:  You see the guy athletically for the first time.  You have to understand that a lot of these media people are studying guys like Upshaw for the first time, so their impressions are based on this bowl week.  For me, I want to see how explosive they are, how they move.  With Upshaw, I have to give him more credit than I had.  I started him at 7.5.  I dropped him to a 6.9 and I'm going to raise him up to a 7.0  He's a little more explosive than I thought he was and his power is even more impressive than I thought.  I liked it to begin with, but it was even more impressive than I had seen.

CN:  Let's stay with the outside linebackers.  You were bullish on Shea McClellin before, but you had more good things to say about him during the week.  Review his game.  Can he be another one of these hybrid 3-4/4-3 guys who stand-ups on 1st and 2nd downs and then puts a hand down and rushes from a 4-man line on 3rd downs?

WB:  He's a unique prospect who had a solid week.  I saw him turn and track running backs a bit on tape, but I wasn't convinced because he wasn't asked to do it much.  He did it this week.  He's really fluid when he has to turn and run with them.  He did it against Isaiah Pead one time.   He's got really good straight-line speed.  He was okay during the linebacker drills but he competes.  He played 4-3 outside linebacker.  They played him inside in a 4-3.  Is that the ideal place for him?  No, but he got after it.

He's a good pass rusher from a 3-point stance.  He's learning how to rush from a 2-point stance.  He still gets a bit too upright.  But you can use him in a 4-man line with his hand on the ground.  You could maybe rush him inside.  You can blitz him off the edge.  He's got a great motor.   All those things added up.

I think he's going to be an NFL starter somewhere.  Will he be a 15 sack guy?  No, but as a complement to a big rusher, who gets 6-8 sacks a year?  He can do that.  People were asking if he's a better football player than Brooks Reed?  I think he's similar to Brooks Reed.  I think Reed has a better first step but I think McClellin can do a lot more overall than Brooks Reed.

CN:  Where does he slot overall?  2nd round?  3rd round?

WB:  I would say, mid to late 2nd to early to mid-3rd.  That's his range.   Anywhere from 45 to 70.

Next:  More hybrid type defensive ends who can play in 3-4 and 4-3 fronts.

Can the Cowboys Find a "Sexy" Alternative to Jon Kitna?

The next Jon Kitna?
In part seven of this week's interview with ESPN Insider K.C. Joyner, he offers a surprising candidate to succeed Jon Kitna as Tony Romo's backup.  


For context, know that Kitna regularly finished last, or among the worst at Joyner's bad decision percentage metric.  In 2010, however, Kitna ranked first, meaning he had the lowest percentage of passes which were intercepted or almost intercepted due to poor judgement.  The old gunslinger ranked ahead of perennial leaders Philip Rivers and Tom Brady.

Cowboys Nation:  Jon Kitna has just retired, so you might think of naming the bad decision award after him.

Looking back, it appears Jason Garrett got the best run of Jon Kitna's career in 2010.   Dallas needs a backup who can give them that '10 level Kitna play.  When you review the list of free agent quarterbacks, you have to consider the marginal NFL quarterbacks, because the good ones are going to start somewhere.

I have two questions.  First, which of these candidates would be willing to play backup and second, which can excel in that role?

K.C. Joyner:  The thing about Kitna last year is, and I'll use a Bill James anecdote about pitchers.  James said pitchers like to throw fastballs.  They got where they are in life throwing a fastball better than anybody else and they just like to do that; it's what they've always been able to lean on.  So it's hard to get them to throw other pitches and change their games.

I think that's what it was with Kitna.  That's who he was.  "I'm a quarterback and I'm a gunslinger and that's what I do."  And it paid off for him.  He had some success in college and the pros.  And I think last year, Garrett got it through Kitna's mind that if you play that sort of game, your career is over.  We will not bring you back and you know you won't get another job in this league.  You have to play my game of high percentage football.

I think Kitna made a commitment to play it that way.  That's why we saw the Jon Kitna we saw in 2010.  You wonder, maybe if Kitna has encountered a Garrett earlier in his career he might have developed differently.  Showed him that there's risk-reward here and you can get the best of both worlds.  I don't think Kitna ever bought into that.  I think he was pitched that before, but never really took to it.  I think we might have seen the Cowboys Kitna much earlier in his career and we might be looking at him a lot differently today.

Getting that out of the way, there are a small number of guys who could potentially serve as good backups.  Chris Redmond in Atlanta had some really good numbers when he filled in.  It's a really small sample size, but he had some really good numbers.  He's accepted being a backup, so he's not going to come in and move for a starting job.

I don't see a lot of whole lot of good options.  Now here's one, and it's going to sound crazy and I doubt if it happens, but look at what Garrett did with Kitna.  What if he were to get Rex Grossman?  I'm just throwing it out there.  I don't think it would happen, but ...

CN:  If you needed him for a month, I'm sure he could do it.  He moved the Redskins, certainly against the Cowboys.  He's moved his teams, wherever he's been.

K.C.:  Imagine if Garrett had the same effect on Grossman that he had on Kitna.  Granted, Grossman is younger.  He's 31.  If he could make this kind of connection with Grossman, and again this is all supposition, Rex Grossman could be the best backup quarterback in the NFL.  He could be the Don Strock of the NFL, where Strock was that guy for Miami for about a dozen years.  Bob Griese gets hurt?  David Woodley gets hurt?  Dan Marino gets hurt?  Strock is your guy.

Now, Grossman is older, but he could stretch out his career a lot longer if he developed into a role like Strock's.

CN:  He does have the arm, and that's vital for a backup, because they're usually older, and they lose some zip on their throws, so you want a guy who had a good fastball to begin with.  Look at Brad Johnson, who preceeded Kitna in Dallas.  He never had a gun, and when he backed up Romo the offense ground to a halt, because all the deep throw options disappeared.

Kitna was a gunslinger, so even when he was in Dallas, at age 36 or so, he could still chuck it, and he could run most of Romo's playbook, maybe all of it.

K.C.:  I think a Jason Garrett could work wonders for a Rex Grossman if he embraced the system.  If Romo gets hurt, and that's been a theme of late, a Grossman could help the team win while Romo heals.

CN:  Dallas put a waiver claim on Kyle Orton when Denver released him.  One reason is that Orton had played in Ron Turner's offense at Chicago, which is similar to Jason Garrett's.  Rex Grossman ran Ron Turner's offense when he was a Bear, so he has some familiarity with what the Cowboys do.

K.C.:  (laughing)  Cowboys fans are going to read this and think, "Grossman?!  A Redskin?! On the Cowboys?!"  But it could be a good fit.

And Grossman had that issue a few years ago when he went to a party on New Year's Eve, instead of a practice, but I think Shanahan might have tried to push Grossman's buttons.

I think A.J. Feeley might be an option.  He's got the smarts, but I don't know that he's got the arm.  He might be a shorter-term guy.  I don't see other guys who stand out.  I'm not sold on Kyle Orton at all.

CN:  I've received several questions about David Garrard.  He didn't play this season. Do you have any insight into that?  Might he make a comeback?

K.C.:  There are injury concerns with Garrard.  Back injury concerns.  Jacksonville let him go about three days before the season and said Blaine Gabbert is our guy and that surprised people.   And I remember doing an interview with Jacksonville, because I did some research on it.  I said going in, if he was healthy, he had really good numbers in 2010, with a bad receiving corps.  I was told back injury.   I heard they looked at an x-ray of his back and it looked like an old, beaten-up lineman's back.

CN:  That's what happened to Troy Aikman.  He hurt his back and lost his power base, and that affected his arm.

Next:  Are two heads better than three, when it comes to Dallas' running back rotation?

Thursday, January 26, 2012

All-Star Games Provide Good Cowboys Options

Melvin Ingram
The two biggest All-Star games have concluded, and the results have to please Cowboys draftniks, as the anticipated strengths of the cornerback and guard classes were confirmed.  (Nearly all scouts will leave today, when practices conclude. To them Senior Bowl week is over.)  Some notes and conclusions:

1.  Fourteen is a good place to be.  The NFL Network put much of its early practice attention on the South team's front seven prospects, led by North Carolina end Quinton Coples, Alabama hybrid end Courtney Upshaw and South Carolina's Mr. Everywhere Melvin Ingram.  All stood out, and made themselves money, while costing the tackles who had to face them some dough.

Let's pick the top 10 apart.  Here are some players who figure as consensus top 10 selections:

  1. Andrew Luck
  2. Robert Griffin
  3. Morris Claiborne
  4. Matt Kalil
  5. Riley Reiff
  6. Justin Blackmon

That brings the next group frequently seen in the 10-12 of mocks:

  1. Trent Richardson (he's a consensus top-10 grade, but backs do fall.  I've seen him as low as 18 in mocks.)
  2. Dre Kirkpatrick
  3. Michael Brockers  
  4. Quenton Coples
  5. Courtney Upshaw
  6. David DeCastro
  7. Jonathan Martin

That's thirteen names, not including Ingram.  If a Devon Still, or a Luke Kuechly or some late riser jumps into the top 13, say a Ryan Tannehill or a Mike Adams, Dallas gets a player or players to choose from that second pool.  This happens almost every year.  Who could have predicted two years ago that Tyson Alualu would go 10th overall?  Or that Jake Locker and Christian Ponder would go 8th and 12th last year?

The top guard and rushers in this class are in play for pick 14.  It's a matter of which one(s)?

2.  Barring a crazy drop by a player like Tannehill, cornerback is looking more and more like the 2nd round value....

Janoris Jenkins was one of the Senior Bowl's standouts and may have cemented himself in the 1st.  Brandon Boykin, Jamell Fleming and Casey Heyward also had strong weeks, according to many draftniks.  Josh Norman was one of the top players at the East-West Shrine Game.  Stephon Gilmore and Alfonzo Dennard also figure to go between the top juniors Claiborne and Kirkpatrick and this bunch.  Dallas should have a number of corner options at pick 45.

3.  Unless the Cowboys want to pick a guard
If the Cowboys miss on DeCastro in the 1st?  They should have 2nd round options.  The big-body guards played well.  Iowa State's Kelechi Osemele dominated in some one-on-one drills.  He's likely behind Georgia's massive Cordy Glenn, who may have locked himself into the late 1st after his workouts.  Brandon Brooks jumped into the guard mix after a strong week at the Shrine Game.  When guards like Kevin Zeitler and Lucas Nix look like 3rd round possibilities, Dallas will have interior line options.

4.  Do we get any direction from team interviews?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Dallas interviewed all the players you expect them to.  Coples, Upshaw and Ingram got their time.  The top corners did as well, though there's some question as to whether Dallas completed one with Janoris Jenkins.  Osemele was interviewed.  The Cowboys know their bigger needs.  They're not trying to deny them.

5.  SEC clones?
Did you notice these numbers from the Senior Bowl weigh in?
Courtney Upshaw --  height: 6014,  weight: 273
Melvin Ingram -- height 6017,  weight 276

Almost identical sizes.  Diifferent games.  Upshaw is power and leverage.  Ingram has a bag of spins, clubs and counters.  Both were very effective this week beating blocks.  Who would you take if both were available at pick 14?

Barring an incredible value pick at quarterback in the first couple of rounds, I still see Dallas playing some DE/OLB, cornerback, guard parlay in rounds one through three, with a slot receiver/punt returner getting attention starting in rounds 3 and 4.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Cowboys Free Agency -- Safety Best Buys?

Tyvon Branch
Part six of this week's chat with ESPN Insider K.C. Joyner covers the free agent safety crop, which lacks marquee names but has some intriguing lower-ticket prospects.

Cowboys Nation:  You've given us some lower-priced, best-buy corners, let's call them.  Can you recommend some at the safety position?  As with corner, the top names all seem flawed in some way.

The Cowboys loved Laron Landry when he was coming out of LSU, but he may need surgery on an Achilles tendon.  He has a chronic problem with one which has landed him on I.R. the last two seasons.  I know his first half of 2010 was really good, however.

K.C. Joyner:  I did track safety metrics in 2010, but didn't put them in the 2011 book.  I'm going to put them back in this year and give the readers two years worth of safety metrics.  I tracked all their materials, their direct coverage and deep assist numbers.

Landry has the injury concerns.  Michael Griffin has been abysmal in coverage in the past.  Chris Harris from Detroit?  That week 17 game, the shootout between Detroit and Green Bay?  Anybody who's thinking of picking up Chris Harris should watch that game, 'cause that's what you're getting.  It ain't good. He's slow.  He's not a guy you want in coverage.

Brandon Merriweather?  He thought he was a big deal in New England because he made the Pro Bowl, and he got a big head.  I don't know that that's a guy I want.

I'm looking at Tyvon Branch from the Raiders and his numbers are good.  Solid.  I hate to just use that word because it's so generic, but he's just a good safety.  He's not great.  He's not going to do anything fantastic, but he's good.  Might be the sort of guy Dallas wants to pick up.  He's not an elite guy, but he's going to do his job.  For Dallas, given how bad their safety play has been the last few years, a guy who comes in and punches the clock and does his job might be a good signing.

CN:  I do think the priority will be corner, because Terence Newman's decline has been so severe and because cutting him saves them over four million in cap space this season.  But we've talked about this, at left corner and at free safety, getting league-average guys there would greatly benefit their secondary play.

K.C.:  Thomas DeCoud from Atlanta is a good cover guy but he doesn't tackle very well.  He has some issues there but if you're looking for a guy to give you over the top help, he could be a good pick up.

Mike Adams from Cleveland looks intriguing.  He's had to play corner there for the Browns and he's done fairly well.  If you're looking for a guy who could give you depth and can be okay at safety and fill in at corner in a pinch, he's worth a look.

Steve Gregory from San Diego is not a bad safety, and they've used him in direct coverage a lot out there.  There are some names out there.  I'm looking at Tanard Jackson from Tampa.  He's had some off-field substance-abuse issues, but when he's on his game, he can be a good free safety.  At the same time, can you count on that player to show up every week?  That's a big concern.

There are some quality candidates at safety.

Next:  A sexy backup quarterback prospect?

The Dreams of a "Football Man": Jerry Pines for Bowman & Willis Type ILBs

Jerry Jones dreams of an inside linebacking duo like San Francisco's, where Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman both made the 2012 All Pro team.  Said Mr. Jones today:

“This is my dream. It’s not exactly the prototype for the makeup of the two guys you’d want in the middle – you might want more of a thumper, a big guy, to go along with Sean Lee. But if we can keep both those guys out there, adjust our defense, we might be going toward Bowman and Willis area like they have in San Francisco.”

That dream could have been a reality -- if Jerry had not daydreamed so much about Dez Bryant two springs ago.  As I noted in an earlier piece, the Cowboys flipped their 3rd round pick to New England to move up three spots in the 2010 1st round and draft Dez.  That lost pick would have put them in position to draft Bowman, a player who ranked 20th on Dallas' draft board that year.  (If you squint real hard, you can see Bowman's name in dry-erase marker ink, just to the right of the Houston Texans tag at the bottom of the draft board image.)

3rd round, 2010 NFL draft

Pick 90 -- New England (from Dallas):  Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
Pick 91 -- San Francisco 49ers:  NaVorro Bowman, ILB, Penn St.

Jerry's concerns about a bigger ILB to team with Sean Lee would have been moot with Bowman's selection. Lee (245 lbs.) is slightly heavier than both Bowman (242) and Willis (240).

Another Jerry Jones dream that disturbs the sleep here in Cowboys land.

Bunting: Shrine Game Gives Cowboys Mid-Round Prospects to Ponder

Today's draft chat with the National Football Post's Wes Bunting wraps up the top prospects from the East-West Shrine Game.

Cowboys Nation:  With the shuffling going on right now, what's your top 10 right now, just by position?

Wes Bunting:  Do you want my top 10 or how you think they will go?  My top 10 would include Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck, two tackles, Matt Kalil and Riley Reiff.  You have the two corners, Claiborne and Kirkpatrick, Michael Brockers, Trent Richardson and then the receivers, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright.  You can argue whether he should be down in the 20s.  I think he's one of the guys who can run in this year's draft. He's a playmaker and I would have him on the cusp of being a top 10-15 pick.

Now how do you think they're going to go?

WB:  Luck goes one.  I think Griffin goes two.  I don't know which team claims him but I think he goes two.  I'd say Kalil at three, then Blackmon and Claiborne.  They're both clear top 10s.  Brockers I think goes top 10.  I think Devon Still could go top 10.  Riley Reiff and then Jonathan Martin probably rounds out the top 10.

CN:  That's good for the Cowboys fans.  There are none of the top rushers there, Coples, Upshaw and Ingram, and the interior lineman, DeCastro gets through.

WB:  I think DeCastro will fall a bit, because he's a guard, but once you get to 11, the Chiefs could take him. I think the Seahawks could take him at 12.  The Cardinals could take him at 13 and the Cowboys could take him at 14.  That's his stretch.

The one thing you have going for you is I think Trent Richardson could be there at 14.  I'm not saying you would take him, but who knows, maybe you would.  You could certainly get some trade value for him.  Running backs almost always fall.

CN:  Who excites you at the Senior Bowl?  Are there guys who have question marks about their games, which could be answered there?

WB:  You can separate these prospects seeing them one-on-one.  For instance, who do you like better, Melvin Ingram or Mike Adams?  Ozzie Newsome said this, and one thing I picked up when I did some work for the Ravens, and was listening to different guys' opinions.  One thing he does when there's a debate in the draft room between an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman or a corner and a receiver, he asks who would win that match-up?

When I look at my chart, I have Mike Adams at 6.9.  I have Melvin Ingram at 7.0.  I have Upshaw at 6.9.  Who wins those match-ups?  Those are things to look at when you have two guys side-by-side on the board.

CN:  Let's go to the Shrine Game one last time.  Norman jumped up after his very good week.  Did anybody else cement themselves in the top 100, in your opinion?

WB:  Jarius Wright was very good.  I think he can be an effective slot guy.  Devon Wylie has the skill set to be a top slot receiver in the NFL.  I was really impressed by him.  I think he can go somewhere in the 3rd-4th round range.  Brandon Brooks helped himself.  We talked about Hicks.  B.J. Coleman was a strong-armed quarterback who wasn't polished, kind of like John Skelton.  Those guys stuck out.

There was a Hampton corner, Pellerin, who was solid.  I think he's a 4th round option.  Norman was the best prospect down there.

CN:  Highest rated prospects now?

WB:  I think Jarius Wright goes 3rd-4th.  I think Josh Norman goes 2nd-3rd.  I think Brandon Brooks goes 3rd.  I think Dominique Hamilton, the DE from Missouri helped himself.  He's a tough guy to figure out.  I think he's a 5-technique.  I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in the 4th or so.  I'd say somewhere in there.  He's 6'5'', 320 lbs. and doesn't have that massive of a frame.  He can put even more weight one.

Devon Wylie, Fresno State could go 3rd-4th.  DT DaJohn Harris from USC could go in the 4th, somewhere in there.  Shaun Prater is a 3rd-4th.  Coleman is probably a later.  Pellerin is probably a 4th.  That's a solid group of guys who could go in the middle rounds.

CN:  You said last week there are ten bowl games this year.  Are there any we should follow, for news?

WB:  The [Casino] del Sol bowl was last week and I heard there were a handful of possible late-round picks there.  The rest of them might have two or three guys who get a look.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Joyner, Part Five: More Pro and College Corner Options

Terrell Thomas
Part five of my chat with ESPN Insider K.C. Joyner discusses the Giants free agent-to-be Terrell Thomas, who comes off an August ACL tear.   Joyner also breaks down top college prospect Dre Kirkpatrick's 2011 season. 

Cowboys Nation:  I wanted to ask you about Terrell Thomas.  He missed all this year with an ACL tear.  What was he like before?  Might he be a quality player you can sign for less, if his knee checks out?  He's 27, which makes him one of the younger free agent options.

K.C. Joyner:  He was a red-rated corner in this past year's draft guide.  He was that good.  I wouldn't call him a true shut-down.  He was in the high 5s to low 7s in YPAs.  He was a good cornerback.  If you knew he was coming back to the level he showed before the injury he's a very good signing.  The injury concerns are significant, but he was good.

If you can get your doctors to get a good look at that knee and everything check out, he could be a good signing. Problem is, if your doctors can look at him, others will too.

He was one of the reasons a lot of people felt the Giants would be strong NFC East contenders.  They figured how good a corner he was.

CN:  I know you have broken down tape on some of the top college prospects for ESPN the last two years. Can you tell us anything about the top college corners?

K.C.:  I have breakdowns on Chris Claiborne and Dre Kirkpatrick but they're not going to make it down to the Cowboys.

CN:  Talk about Kirkpatrick.  Everybody in Cowboys land knows Claiborne will be long gone by Dallas' pick at 14.  They assumed Kirkpatrick was going to be gone too, but his arrest for marijuana possession last week has some people thinking he could slide into Dallas' reach.  Some people wish for this.

Is this a matter of be careful what you wish for, because you could get it?  Or might this be a happy accident for Dallas?

K.C.:  I took a lot of heat from Alabama fans for mentioning that he had a poor 2010 season.  I put the metrics somewhere on the site.  I mentioned that earlier this year and the Alabama fans gave me grief.  I think he might have been hurt in 2010.

In 2011, I did a seven-game sample and it was against the best offenses Alabama faced.  That's a caveat in the way because they didn't face a lot of really tough passing games.  They faced Auburn and Mississippi State, who didn't have great quarterbacking play.  They faced Florida and Brantley tore them up for a half, then they knocked him out of the game.  Penn State had a mediocre offense.  Arkansas had a very good offense.  They faced LSU and LSU was what it was.

He gets targeted 23 times, gives up a completion or a penalty eight times.  The receivers get 152 yards and three touchdowns.  That's a 6.6 YPA and three touchdowns on 23 passes.

It's not that good.  That's a 6.6 in college.  If you go to the pros and you say he's going to add a yard, a yard and a half playing against better receivers and better offenses and adjusting to the pro game, he's an average corner.  I'm not sold on the guy at all. He was not a shut-down corner last year.   He was a good college corner, mind you, but I don't think he's going to be this great professional cornerback.

I think he's going to be solid, but I don't think he's the guy who solves all your coverage issues.

You try to be careful when you say these things.  I think he's a good corner.  I don't think he's gonna be a bust.  I just think he's a good, but not a great corner.  Let's put it this way, if he fell to the Cowboys and you felt the off-field issues were not a problem, great, he could help you, but he's not a guy you trade up for.  You're not missing the next Darrelle Revis, probably.

I don't even think Morris Claiborne is a great corner.  It's not a great corner draft, in that you're finding elite guys at the top.  It is a depth draft.  The Cowboys should, if they really wanted to, get some decent 2nd round help in the draft.

Gossip Boy: Jimmy K Plays Senior Bowl Spy

Our blog friend Jimmy Kempski from Blogging the Beast is in Mobile, and runs down the division's scouts and their players of interest.  Go here for the full rundown.

The most attention-catching Cowboys report comes on Arkansas' Joe Adams:

And finally, the Cowboys had a chat with a guy that I think has probably helped himself the most so far this week,  WR Joe Adams of Arkansas.  Very impressive player, but no size whatsoever.  He’s 5’10, 174, but looks thicker than 174.  He reminds me of DeSean Jackson, but with a bigger frame, and a little less speed... 

In the early mocks, I included a series of shorter, water-bug types receivers who can work the slot and return kicks.  5'10'' guys with pure speed.  This draft is loaded with such prospects -- Kendall Wright, Jarius Wright, Adams, Devon Wylie, T.Y. Hilton.  Adams made some eye-popping punt returns this year, topped by the Tennessee touchdown currently on BTE's front page.

We've stopped paying attention to these guys in recent weeks to focus on defensive prospects.  It appears Dallas hasn't.  (Keep in mind that the Cowboys will interview a few dozen players this week.)

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