Is Jerry Going Shopping?

After weeks of hearing that the Cowboys are facing a cap-strapped spring, the team boomeranged into cap health today, restructuring the deals of several veterans, most notably Brandon Carr's, DeMarcus Ware's and Jason Witten's deals.

Dallas finished the day under the cap, and has yet to work out a new deal for quarterback Tony Romo, which could add more space for the team to use during the free agent window, which begins on March 12th.

The biggest issue, Romo's contract aside, will be what the team does with free agent defensive end Anthony Spencer?  Dallas could franchise Spencer for a second consecutive season, but Jerry Jones, in his inimitable style, hinted last week that Spencer could stay and go.  Jones told the press he "had a number in mind" for Spencer that the player was likely to exceed on the market.

So what might the team do with that figure which might be too thin for Spencer's tastes?  Is there a veteran end who might better fit Mr. Jones salary slot?

I have to assume the Cowboys will be modest players, whether they keep Spencer or let him walk.  And if they let him go, I'd have to assume they would pursue a veteran end to replace him.  Letting Spencer walk and not signing a replacement obligates the team to spend a high draft pick on a new left end. That means the team will use its 1st or 2nd round pick merely to run in place.  That's hardly Jerry's mind-set.

With that in mind, I scanned the free agent lists and saw two potential mid-ticket signings which intrigue me.

1.  DE Michael Bennett -- He's Martellus Bennett's more modest brother. He's also the better player in the Bennett household.  The former A&M Aggie has started at left end in Tampa's 4-3 the last two seasons and has made major strides.  He bagged 4.0 quarterbacks in 2011 and sacked nine more in 2012.  If you think back to Dallas' narrow win over the Bucs in week four, you remember Bennett embarrassing right tackle Doug Free with a power game;  Bennett consistently got under Free's pads and walked the tackle to Tony Romo.  It was Bennett who knocked Romo woozy late in the contest.

Bennett is two years younger than Spencer (27 to Spencer's 29) and is on the rise.  He's a Texas native and might relish polishing his game under Rod Marinelli.  He could be a cheaper and better player than Anthony Spencer the next three to four years.

2.  S Kenny Phillips.  There are some intriguing, if dinged safeties in the veteran market -- Dashon Goldson, Louis Delmas, William Moore, Ed Reed and Phillips.

Moore might be the safest bet, but he's also the most likely to land a Eric Weddle-sized deal, in my opinion.  Reed is old, and Delmas has battled injury issues.

Phillips has as well but he looks like the potential bargain to me, because he's been one of the best safeites in the NFC when healthy.  Blogging the BEast's Jim Kempski has made the claim, and I concur, that Phillips has been the NFC East's best safety the past few years, and it hasn't been close.  He's big, instinctive and can play centerfield.

He had full years in 2010 and 2011 but made only eight starts in 2009 and 2012.  That has moved the Giants to let him test the market.  Those yo-yo starting numbers will probably keep his cost down.  He's only 26, and successfully rehabbed a knee which had the risky microfracture procedure performed on it in 2009.

He's a potential low-risk, high-reward signing.  Given the Cowboys fortunes at safety recently, an 85-90% Kenny Phillips would represent an upgrade.

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Disaster Draftersize - Panic and No Off Season Christmas

Draft Disaster in Big D?

The NFL Combine has come and gone, leaving Off Season Christmas, otherwise known as the NFL Draft, just around the corner! Six (maybe more) shiny new presents await the Cowboys Nation faithful as Dallas has the 18th pick in the draft and a laundry list of possible first rounders.

The first rounder is the most important pick of the draft. Like winning the big game in college, you can miss on everything else, but if you beat the cross town rivals your good for another year! The list of possible first rounders being linked as potential Dallas targets grows by the day. Our talent base should improve as we get another solid first rounder on the field in 2014! Life is good, what a great day the NFL Draft is! Our team ....

..... Hold That Line Of Thought! Hit the brakes, pop the chute! In our due diligence of daily web research, we came across a mock draft by Don Banks of Sports Illustrated. Why am I going out of my way to mention this particular Mock? Is it because of Don Banks credentials (they are quite impressive)? Is it because it is a scenario that makes sense for the teams involved that pick before Dallas (it does)? There are actually eight, precise reasons. Let's review them.

• Eagles take OG Chance Warmack with pick #4
• Titans take OG/C Jonathan Cooper with pick #10
• Dolphins take DE/Freak Ezekiel Ansah with pick #12
• DE Bjoern Werner goes to Tampa Bay with pick #13
• DT Sheldon Richardson goes to the Panthers at #14
• OLB Jarvis Jones snapped up by the Saints at #15
• S Kenny Vaccaro goes to the Rams at #16
• OT D.J. Fluker to the Cowboys at #18

Two blue chip guards, gone. Three defensive linemen with skills, out of here. The best safety on the board, no longer an option. Freak athletes that can change a game, previously selected. A freaking right tackle at 18? Nothing against Fluker, and no offense to Parnell, as we do need a RT. But if the draft breaks down the way Banks predicts, we could be left with a choice of taking a safety ranked for much later at 18 (Elam, Cyprian, etc) or trying to find a trade down partner with everyone knowing that our golden geese have all fled the pond. The talent pool drops off the edge of the cliff about pick 15. Dallas is at 18, just over the precipice. We need a drop. If we don't get one, we need a plan.

What do you do if this happens Cowboys Nation? Stick with the need and reach a bit down for Mingo (might not be such a reach) or one of the remaining safeties? Or stick with BPA and take Fluker or a WR or ..... What would you do?

On Twitter: Steven Van Over

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Defensive Depth Chart v2.0 - Yin Yang Post Combine Edition

Cowboys Face Yin Yang Decisions

Welcome to the 2013 Off Season Defensive Depth Chart version 2.0. - Post Combine Edition. Version 2 helps us bring focus on what the Cowboys have to do versus what we want them to. Rotations that reflect potential injury shuffles are also reflected. For instance if Ware goes down, Hatcher may become a starting DE, versus a starting DT. These types of things are included where possible. We charted all players under contract, including futures players, placing them were we believe they will gain the majority of camp time, which of course, can change at any given moment. We use color to denote the depth of a position according to the legend on the chart.

We were taken by the yin yang, post combine situations at many of the positions that will directly affect the draft currency spent at that position.

Click on Defensive Depth Chart to Enlarge for Viewing

SOLB - The battle between A. Albright and K. Wilber should be a good one, Albright's versatility could handicap him in a close race, as despite his size, he can man each LB position in a pinch. 

Yin - Wilber brings the expectations of talent unrealized due to injury.

Yang - Albright brings the realization of talent as opportunity seized.

With no OLB other than Missouri Zaviar Gooden and his 4.47 40X being a possible value pick if the draft fell just right, the writing is on the wall for either Albright or Wilber to start. Wilber has received good reports from coaches and staff so far. For right now we are giving him the nod.

LB - The fight for the best backup rotation will happen first in free agency, where it will be interesting to see if an offer is made to Ernie Sims, who like Albright, can man all three LB positions. This could make Conner an early casualty from a defense predicated on speed, quickness and range, no longer his strong suits. What we have in McSurdy, Lemon, Satele and Cameron will be answered in camp. If the coaching staff no longer views any of them as suitable to the scheme (possible), none of them have deals which preclude them being released. If a talent drops, the Cowboys may spend a pick at LB, but it is more likely to take hard looks at the talent it has unearthed thus far.

Yin - Conner brings the experience of a veteran.

Yang - Sims, McSurdy, Lemon, Satele and Cameron bring youth (except Sims) and speed, which the Tampa 2 defense is built on.

There doesn't seem to be any ILB on the Cowboys radar at this point. Coaches are loathe to go with a team that is too young. Veterans don't make critical mistakes. It would take standout camps from at least two of the young guns in order for Conner to be cut. I hope it happens.

DL - This group (and Safety) can have polar opposite outcomes depending on the resolution of specific events. Signing Spencer is reportedly a major goal of the team this off season. What happens with the defense will domino based on the results of that effort.

Yin - The players will excel in a scheme better suited to their skills. That even without the signing of A. Spencer, the talent is there to perform at the level necessary to perform in the new Tampa 2 scheme. Ratliff, Hatcher, Crawford, Lissemore and perhaps Spears can all excel on the inside. Ware, Spencer, Crawford, Lissemore and Spears make a fine rotation at DE. Crawford could start if Spencer is not signed, backed up by Lissemore, Spears and Igbinosun. An exciting player to consider, Igbinosun is a wild card from the edge, who has the physical skill set to bring tremendous pressure. Bass, Callaway, Price and Schaefering all have talent from the inside and one, perhaps two should step up and become solid rotation players, maybe even starter caliber.  

Yang - Ratliff is past his prime, Brent is gone and neither Bass, Price, Callaway or Schaefering is good enough to supply the inside pressure and disruption needed in the Tampa 2. Ware is entering the final phase of his career, and a move to require his hand on the turf every down will shorten not only his career years left, but the number of effective games he can provide during those years. Crawford is not suited to be a 4-3 DE, does not have the burst needed to play behind Ware or the strength to play in lieu of Spencer. Spencer would be solid, but Dallas will not be able to afford him, leaving their front four in a shambles and conversely, necessitate a first round pick, and probable reach.

Reality usually lies somewhere between doom and gloom versus rose colored glasses scenarios. Regardless, it all starts with free agent Anthony Spencer. If Dallas signs him they will be much better. It will depend on the price, and the situation with the cap. I believe the cap can be managed. That means it will depend on Spencer agreeing to play for a little bit of a home town discount. Unfortunately  look for Spencer to take the money and run. There are several players that would fit what Dallas needs in the upcoming draft. The best are going to go in the top ten. There should be some solid players available in round two and possibly three however. That leaves Crawford with the opportunity to start, with a direct competition against a 1st-3rd round draft pick probable. Dallas has talent along the line. How much do Ratliff and Ware have left in the tank will determine how far this group can go in 2013. How good of a player Crawford, Lissemore, Igbinosun, Callaway, Bass, Price and Schaefering become under the Rod Marinelli influence will determine how much this group can grow. A draft pick needs to be expended here. Probably more than one. 

CB - We need to address the lack of depth at CB. Behind Scandrick we have questions. Agnew, Moore and Underwood are what we have on the roster. 

Yin - There is the possibility that we can enjoy the late blossoming of a young player that has worked hard and is just now managing to bring it all together.

Yang - The level of talent available from the 4th round on is much higher than any dB on the roster after our top three.

Ok - there is an exception to every rule. Not much Yin/Yang here. We need help at CB. Ideally someone that can push Scandrick for playing time. More UDFA's are a certainty, yet I also look for the Cowboys to spend a pick on a CB in rounds four through seven.

S - That leaves us at Safety. The depth chart paints the picture Red based on talent and production. As you troll the web you find that most everyone views Dallas as having an issue at Safety. But what does Jerry Jones think?

Yin - Dallas gave mid level contracts to both Church and Sensabaugh. They have continuously given glowing reports on Johnson, point out that McCray, though over matched, was able to fill in and still excels on special teams. They also like Pellerin at FS and CB4. Everyone will get healthy and the position will become one of strength.

Yang - Church is coming off a serious achilles injury and one legged Safeties are susceptible to the seam route, Sensabaugh is serviceable, but doesn't have the range necessary for the Tampa 2. The last time Johnson was on a football field for two days in a row, there was a super continent on the globe and Africa was a state.

With the departure of Ryan, we know less about how the brain trust views this position than most. What Jerry Jones, Jason Garrett and Monte Kiffin think about the Dallas situation at Safety, is a conversation I would love to sit in on. There are several talented Safety prospects available this year, and most project at least some would be available as a value pick when Dallas chooses in the first or second round. The questions is, how do the Cowboys view the situation at Safety? What does Kiffin think? What does Jason think? What does Jerry think? What does Cowboys Nation think?

What positions do you see differently? What answers do you propose? Comment below.

On Twitter: Steven Van Over

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Targeting Early Round Cowboys Targets

I finish this week's pre-Combine chat with Cowboys Nation's draft analyst TD by trying to build a short list of prospects for Dallas first two picks at the guard, safety and defensive line spots.

Cowboys Nation: Let's try and slot available players of need into Dallas' draft spots.  Start with players on defensive line, guard and safety who should be available in the 15 to 25 range.  Dallas is picking 18th.  Who sits there right now.  I know things are fluid but right now who might Dallas expect to see when their pick comes up?

TD: At guard Chance Warmack, possibly, because of his not ideal workouts this week.  Cooper should be there as well.  At safety, Vaccaro most likely he'll be there.  As of right now, I think he'll be there.  I have a tough time putting a safety in the top 15.  If the Cowboys trade back a bit, Eric Reid from LSU should be there.

On defensive line it's an interesting question.  If you're looking at a pure pass rusher, Barkevious Mingo could be there, the pass rusher from Texas A&M Demontre Moore could be there.  I'll have to talk to more people to figure out what this week's medical news has done to Jarvis Jones' stock.  I think he might slide a bit, but I think 15 is his limit.  I can't see him sliding into the 20s.

I think right now Mingo is an option as the best pure pass rusher in that range.  But if Mingo blows it up he could go in the top 10.

The best value is if Chance falls to you.  I think I'd put Vaccaro next, because there's a good chance he'll actually be there.  He's a safe pick.  I would have said you can get some value with Lane Johnson, but the way he worked out, I don't think he slides there.

One thing Cowboys fans could have going for them is if a quarterback slides a bit and a team in the 20s is interested in moving up.  If say a Barkley is there and a team wants to deal up you could slide down a bit and still pick up a Cooper or an Eric Reid.

The Cowboys are in a tough spot at 18.  I think Sharrif Floyd is gone by 18.  I think Johnathan Hankins from Ohio State could be there but I don't know if he's an ideal fit for them.  I'd rate Warmack higher than Hankins and I would also rate Vaccaro higher than Hankins.

CN:  2nd round.  Same positions, safety, guard, guard/center and 4-3 defensive linemen.  Who do you see in the 40-55 range.  The Cowboys are picking 47th.

TD:  At guard, we've talked about Larry Warford.  I think he'll be there in the 2nd because he's a phone-booth player and maybe even in the 3rd.  I think Brian Winters from Kent State could come into play.  He had a good workout.  He can move a bit.  He's heavy handed.  I have to say I don't think we'll see as many guards in that 2nd to 3rd round range as last year.  I think Warford goes in there but I think it thins out until about the 4th round.

Defensive linemen, I think Sam Montgomery is in that 2nd round range right now.  Oregon's Dion Jordan has a lot of folks raving about him if he fits their scheme.  He's a natural rusher but a lot of teams don't want their edge rushers being 6'6", or 6'7", so I think he's limited more to 4-3 teams than 3-4 teams.  He is a bit angular.  He has some things going for him and some against him.  I don't think he goes in the late 1st, I think he'll wind up in the 2nd.

Alex Okafor from Texas could go in that range. We've talked about Margis Hunt from SMU.  Michael Buchanan from Illinois could go in that range.  I think Buchanan could be that guy.  I think he's viewed as a later-round guy but he could jump up this week.

CN:  Where do you put Florida State's Tank Carradine?  He's been mentioned as a 2nd round option if he works out well at his Pro Day.

TD:  He's a typical 4-3 guy.  He's 6'5".  He's got good get off.  He can play three downs, which adds to his value. I didn't think he had that type of production before his injury. You look at a Bruce Carter and you knew he was a 1st round talent before he hurt his knee.  I would not put Carradine in that category.

CN:  Where do you see him

TD:  More as a 3rd-4th round guy right now.

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Combine Live Safety Update

Watching the NFL Combine live. Keeping Cowboys Nation faithful up to date, here are some Safety items of interest. All 40 times are unofficial at this point. (second runs or official times in parents, bold numbers are official "top 5" performances)

• In his first attempt, potential Cowboys draft target Texas Kenny Vaccaro ran a 4.59 (4.63)
• N.C. State Earl Wolff smoked a 4.37 (4.44)
• Syracuse Thomas Shamarko blasted a 4.38 (4.42)
• Georgia Shawn Williams 4.44 (4.46)
• Floridas Matt Elam a smooth 4.46 (4.54)
• Iowa Micah Hyde 4.47 (4.56)
• AZ State Keelan Johnson 4.47 (4.54)
• Florida Josh Evans (4.58)
• USC T.J. McDonald (4.59), LSU Eric Reid (4.53), USC Jawanza Starling (4.64) and Georia Southern J.J. Wilcox (4.57) all with a 4.53
• Fresno St. Phillip Thomas 4.56 (4.65)
• CAL CB Steve Williams a blistering 4.25 (4.42)

These were the first attempts with unofficial times. Will update through the day as things change, check back often.

UPDATES:

• 11:46 AM - Vaccaro with an excellent back pedal hip flip drill. Smooth hips in transition. Stayed low with nice drive to create burst after the direction change.
• 11:48 AM - UConn Wilson also showing excellent technique and incredibly long arms. Knuckles almost drag the turf during his backpedal hip flip maneuver. Impressive.
• 12:05 PM - Replay of Shamarko shows him doing a total face plant after he crosses finish line in the 40. Comical.
• 12:10 PM - Updated 40 times with second runs or official times in parents (), bold numbers are "top 5" performances
• 12:16 PM - Pundits reviewing Vaccaro's disappointing official 40 time of 4.63. Mention good technique but ran tight.
• 12:32 PM - Mike Mayock mentions he timed 'Bama Guard Warmack with a sundial. All for the session. Take a break and come back.
• 12:52 PM - Earl Wolf pulling up with a limp as he slips and drops a ball on a catch drill. Back to the ball, turn and drive with a zippy, not on target pass to pull in. 
• 12:55 PM - Safeties lost bet with CB's, doing 20 push ups as a group. Speaks to the competitive nature of NFL athletes. Everything is a competition!
• 1:04 PM - CB's are up in the 40.
• 2:03 PM - CB Milner showing up very well today. 4.31 official 40 time with glowing pundit and film reviews.
• 2:33 PM - CB Honey Badger having a very nice combine so far.
• 4:22 PM - S Thomas Shamarko just shaved some time off his 40. Dude explodes. No face plant this time. 
• 4:27 PM - S J.J. Wilcox turns in a 4.53 and looked smooth.
• 4:28 PM - NFL Network using a "Simulcam" tool where they put different players 40 runs up and have them run virtual heats using the same camera from the same spot. Very cool and a great tool to figure out who is faster before the "official" times come out. Bottom line ... WR Goodwin jumps out of the blocks and has a closing burst that leaves anyone in a cloud of dust. There will be no "catching up" with Goodwin by any of the dB's in this group, or probably in the NFL.
• 4:31 PM - S Earl Wolf shaves just a bit off his time with his last run of the day. 
• FS Matt Elam and SS Keelan Johnson are quietly having a solid Combine. Their 4.54 40 time puts them both just inside the top 5 for the position this year and their skill drills show fluidity, nice hips, ability to stay low and deliver burst. They have increased their value today.
• California CB Steve Williams showed incredible hip twitch with smooth acceleration while staying low displaying excellent hip flip capability. He showed hands when driving on deep ball drills. His burst was phenomenal. He definitely increased his stock today.
• The one deep ball tracking drill was revealing and cut a clear line between those that could handle it and those that could not. Run backwards, then flip to the right hip, drive, flip to the left hip, drive, flip over the top blind and drive for the coach in the corner, track a high deep ball and catch it at it's highest point, turn back and sprint straight line for the end zone. The players with tight hips were all over the field, taking more room and time to complete a hip flip, sometimes stumbling and clearly slower in execution, often becoming upright when changing direction and losing the ability to drive. This drill exposed which players could function in a game at a position, and which ones will be Special Teams (straight line) only players. Vaccaro, Wolf, Shamarko and Elam were all fine. A few players ended up on their backsides at various points.
• Vaccaro performed the skill drills fast and fluid, faster than his 40 time would indicate. 

That's it. Look for a Combine wrap up soon.

On Twitter: Steven Van Over

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Cowboys Combine Notes: Is Jon Cooper Really a "Fall-back" Option?

Jonathan Cooper

Part two of Cowboys Nation's chat with our draft analyst TD looks at breakout Combine players at the offensive skill positions and compares guard Jonathan Cooper to the top-rated guard Chance Warmack.

Cowboys Nation:  Based on what you've seen thus far, who looks more likely to slide and who could move up?

TD:  Off today?  [The interview was held on Sunday.] Watching Tavon Austin move -- he's dynamite.  Looking at teams playing more with guys in the slot on 1st down I think he can be a 1st-round receiver and make an impact.  Ryan Swope is a poor-man's version of Austin.  He ran in the 4.3 range today.  He's much more athletic than people thought.

Robert Woods has helped himself a lot.  I watched him a little today.  He was phenomenal catching the football.  He's faster than people think and he's smooth.  His freshman year he was being touted as a potential top-10 pick.  Woods didn't forget how to play football, but he happened to play with another talented receiver whom Matt Barkley seemed to like more.  USC also game planned away from Woods more but he could move up boards based on his work.

At running back, Arkansas' Knile Davis was another one.  We talked about him as a potential sleeper.  He was fast, he was fit.  He had close to 30 reps in the bench press.  Watching Knile Davis, I see a guy who could certainly help a team that took him in the 3rd or 4th round.  He might even sneak into the 2nd, and I think he could out-produce a lot of guys who entered this process with higher ratings.

CN:  How many backs do you think will go in the 1st and 2nd round.  Dallas will probably be looking for a running back.  I would be surprised now if they kept Felix Jones.  How many runners could go in the 1st.  Is it Eddie Lacy and then wait and see?

TD:  I think he's the only one who could go in the 1st.  I think he could fall later in the round.  I've heard that Miami might be a destination, depending on what they do with Reggie Bush.  I've heard the Packers as a possible team, and I think Lacy would make a great fit for Green Bay.  But there are not a lot of teams with a huge need for running backs.

I could see Lacy going in the late 1st, somewhere in the range where Mark Ingram went a couple of years ago.  Then Giovani Bernard might go in the 1st, but I can't find a spot for him.

I'm excited to run down the defensive tackles with you next week once they work out, but what I've already heard is that as many as eight defensive tackles could go in the 1st round.  This happened a few years ago, in '04 I think it was, and it seemed that every two or three picks a defensive tackle is flying off the board.  The result is that good players at other positions were pushed down the board.

So you think which positions could get pushed this year?  Running back is one.  Inside linebacker is another. Safety is another spot, especially if you're an in-the-box guy.  If the grades are similar, who do you want, an interior defensive lineman, or a running back who's likely going to last one contract?

It used to be quarterback where you wanted to draft a guy every year or every other year to see if you hit the jackpot.  I think it's smart to start drafting a running back every other year or so in the mid-rounds, so you can rotate a new one in and never find yourself short there.

CN:  Let's go back to the top.  If you're talking eight defensive tackles, who are they?

TD:  Obviously Star Lotulelei at the top.  [This was before Lotulelei was held out of drills with a suspicious heart test.  Stay tuned on this story.]  There's Sharrif Floyd from Florida.  He's almost certainly a top 15, and a top 10 guy if he tests well.  There's Jonathan Hankins from Ohio State, the big plugger.  He looks more like a 4-3 tackle and can eat up space.

Sheldon Richardson from Missouri is more of one-gap type.  I think he's got some 5-technique but he's a better fit as a 3-technique in a 4-3.   Then you've got the big nose tackle from Georgia Johnathan Jenkins.  You have Jesse Williams from Alabama, Sylvester Williams from North Carolina and maybe a Kawann Short sneaks in.

CN: I think in Cowboys land there's a short list for a lot of people.  I think it's four guys, two 3-techniques, Floyd and Richardson, the safety Kenny Vaccaro and Chance Warmack.  There's a pretty good chance all four of those guys are gone.  If Dallas comes on the clock and they're out, where or to whom do you turn next?  Where does Jonathan Cooper sit these days?

TD:  He ran a very good 40 time, must over 5.0 seconds.  He's a safe play, there's no doubt about that.  And he's something else with Cooper.  Several teams I've talked to feel that his best position may end up being center.  His most natural position may be center as opposed to guard.  He's being viewed as a guy who can play multiple positions.  I think that adds value.

You know he can play with good pad level and can get under you and can move.  He's not simply a straight-line player.  Add that he could also play center and I think he will be in that 20 to 40 range.  Pick 18 might be a bit high, but if you can get a future All Pro center who really cares where he was taken?

CN:  I had this discussion with Eric Galko a while back about the inevitable comparison between Cooper and Warmack.  Warmack it seems is in a class by himself among the interior O-linemen, but Cooper helped himself a lot because he had good power numbers in his workout.

That said, his tape does not match Warmack's in the power game.  Is this a matter of Cooper lacking strength right now, and is this something he can improve in the future?

TD:  Cooper is going to get stronger.  When you look at Warmack and Cooper, they're different body types.  When you look at offensive tackles say, when they have that V-cut shape with narrower hips and a narrower waist, they can add 20-25 lbs. but they're still going to have a narrower frame and they won't have the natural power base that a guy with an "inverted" frame will have.

You look at Chance Warmack and he's built for power. I'm not saying Cooper isn't, but Warmack has a wide frame, thicker hips, he's broader in his lower half.  When he's able to get a hold of you, he has more power.

I think Cooper gets off the football a little better, just a split second quicker.  That's taking nothing away from Warmack, who is good off the ball too, but Warmack just has a more consistent ability to create movement in the power game and that's something Cooper will never be able to generate on the same level.  But Cooper can make up for it in other ways with his ability to get off the football, to play with good leverage.  I think Cooper can probably angle people away from the football a little better because of his superior movement but in a phone booth, Warmack is as good as it gets.

Next:  TD rates the best bets for the Cowboys at need positions in the 1st and 2nd rounds.  

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Kenny Vaccaro - Snap Shots

With the Cowboys move towards the Tampa 2 and talent level at safety PW (Post-Woodson), most fans are aware of Texas 6'1" 215 lb, Kenny Vaccaro. While evaluating a player, a critical tool is to consider revealing snapshots of a players thoughts while they are "in the process" of becoming a NFL player. Combine interviews are a great tool in this regard.

Vaccaro is a total football player who also contributes on special teams

How a player approaches the process of becoming a NFL player gives us an inside look at how effective a player will be making the transition from the collegiate level. Ultimately, how much of your talent you can bring to the field will determine the production level for a team. Does a player understand that there will be a difference in the NFL game or does he think he is so talented the NFL has to watch out for him? Is he confident, cocky or foolish? Did he have access to other superior athletes while growing up that can enhance the NFL learning curve? How fast does he view himself?  Does he understand his weaknesses? Does he believe he will continue to improve with hard work or does he think he is the best now? Is he able to handle duties in the scheme? Does he understand how a defense works and how he can interact with it in order to make plays? Can he be a leader? Below are snapshots of a recent interview Kenny Vaccaro gave at the NFL Combine.

• "Earl Thomas (Seahawks dB drafted 14th overall in 2010) has been my mentor growing up. I have watched him play, and how he plays, since I was in my freshman year, playing hard, going hard on every play, I model my game after him. I work out with his brother Seth every day in Irvine right now."
• "I'm aware the pro game is different, I have to become familiar with the speed and the (different) angles caused by the hash marks being spaced differently."
• "I enjoy being challenged, it broadens my horizons as a player"
• ".... going up against (big strong WR'ers) in practice, all day long, gives me the confidence to match up against big, NFL style receivers."
• "I can play both Strong and Free. I play Nickle, Dime ... and even in some instances I play corner."
• "In practice I line up with the CB's in 1-1 drills so I can test myself."
• "I hope to run in the low 4.5's to 4.4 range" - ed note: Safeties run the 40 on Tuesday
• "Goodwin (Texas WR) is world class speed, he will run away from anyone, I just try and stay with him."
• "Safeties are getting respect now that TE's are turning into freaks. .... You need a Safety that can cover, and come up and hit."
• "I'm versatile, I understand concepts, I can line guys up, I can be the QB of the defense."
• "My uncle (dB A.J. Johnson - drafted 6th round in 1989) ..... just told me to be myself and keep doing what I have done to get here and I will be alright".
• "Have you met with the Cowboys?" - haltingly replies, as if not certain how much he is supposed to reveal "My agent said i'm going to meet with them at their place, I think."

Vaccaro was well spoken, listened to questions and seemed to give fairly thoughtful replies. He seemed to be caught off guard by the directness of the Cowboys question, yet seemed to choose to give what he could, perhaps more than advised. He seemed calm. He was focused. Be interesting to see what time he actually runs on Tuesday. What do the snapshots tell you CowboysNation?

On Twitter: Steven Van Over

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Combine Draft Chat: Who's In Play for the Cowboys?

Warmack: Still an option at 18?

Some Combine notes from TD with two days down.  He speculates that some of Dallas' offensive line targets may be in play for the team's 18th pick.

TD:  Where do you want to start today, offensive line?

Cowboys Nation:  That' a fine place to start.  A few weeks ago you told us you expected Jonathan Cooper and Lane Johnson to test really well, and they both did.  When this happens, does it affect the draft order, and has anybody shaken up the offensive line order after Saturday's tests?

TD: I don't think you'll see a major shakeup at the offensive line, because of the position.  You might see more of a mix-up today with the quarterbacks, running backs and receivers going, and they're so speed intensive.  Geno Smith probably helped himself today by running in the 4.56 range.  The receiver Robert Woods from USC had a good time.

Obviously with Lane Johnson you have a good athlete, but he's not as good a football player as Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel.  Johnson looks much better when they were running in shorts but as soon as the position drills began, Joeckel looked more fluid, dropping into his base, flipping his hips and turning.

I don't think there was a lot of movement.  I heard an interesting point on this from Ryan Grigson, the Colts GM.  He said that going into the Combine he's hoping his targets have sub-par workouts so they can fall down boards a bit and he can get a value.

On the score people were all over Chance Warmack yesterday for running 5.5s.  He's a guard!  But now nobody is going to leave the Combine saying, "wow, did you see Chance work out?  He was phenomenal!"  They're saying, "meh."

I think for the offensive linemen, the so-so workouts could hurt guys a little bit and it could end up helping teams that are looking for them and who didn't think they had a shot at a Warmack.  Larry Warford was in the same boat.  I think he ran in the 5.5 range, which isn't great, but he's a straight-line guard.

I think some of the teams eyeing them could be licking their chops, thinking that Warmack and Warford could both go 5-10 spots lower than people projected a week ago.

CN:  Last year something very similar happened in the Cowboys' world.  I was told after the Combine that he Dallas brass was happy that LSU's Michael Brockers had a so-so workout and that Dontari Poe was getting so much buzz, because the Cowboys really liked Brockers and didn't think going in that he would fall to 14.

As things turned out, Brockers fell to 14 and was taken there by the Rams.  Had Dallas stayed put you would have likely seen Morris Claiborne go 6 and Brockers 14 but to the St. Louis and Dallas respectively.  What Grigson described happens quite a bit it seems.

TD: Grigson mentioned two players like this.  He said the Colts had a late 1st, early 2nd grade on tight end Dwayne Allen, and he ran a 4.85 at the Combine.  People didn't think he was a great athlete, so he fell to the 3rd and Grigson felt he got a steal.

The same with Vick Ballard.  Indy gave him a 2nd round running back grade.  He ran a 4.6 and fell to the 5th round, and the Colts felt they got a 2nd round value there.

Both of those guys were productive as rookies and look like they're going to be productive players in the league.

It's going to be interesting to see if something like this happens at the interior O-line spots.  Athleticism is important, but 40 times really are not.

CN:  Give us your take on two stories that came out last night.  It seems that Manti Te'o is surviving his weekend and is mending his reputation.  Conversely, some unflattering information was coming out about LSU defensive end Sam Montgomery and his poor work ethic.

TD:  In Montgomery's situation, NFL scouts take more information and put more stock into what the strength and conditioning coach says than any other coach on a team's staff.  Because these are the coaches who spend the most time with the players.  And it's a lot like your office situations.  When the boss is away, how do you behave?  If the head coach is not around, how do these players work?  The strength and conditioning coaches know that.

Te'o sounded like a politician.  I wasn't there asking the questions, but he seems to be owning it, and admitting he made a mistake.

CN:  Will this news hurt Montgomery?

TD:  I think it will.  You might remember Georgia's Carlos Dunlap was talked up as a 1st round pick a couple of years ago and he didn't test well.  That's because he wasn't well conditioned.  So Dunlap falls into the 2nd and the Bengals ended up getting a mini-steal, because he grew up a bit and had nine sacks one year and six in another.  On the other hand, you have UCLA's Brian Price who also didn't test out great, and slipped into the 2nd, and now he's on his third team.  [That team is Dallas.]

From a draft perspective?  I think Montgomery would have made a strong run at the top 15, certainly top 20 had he really worked out well.  Now I think he goes somewhere in that 2nd round range where a team does not have to invest that much.  It could be good for him, in that it forces him to get his priorities straight.  Or, it could be bad for him if he's not accountable for his actions.

Anytime you have a strength coach who bad mouths you, I can't think of a guy who survived that and stayed in the 1st round.

It could be good for a team if he gets it together, because he's a 1st round athlete, but teams won't invest 1st-round money in a guy who hasn't shown he'll work hard.

CN:  This sounds like the Grigson scenario, only this time the guy slides because of character questions, not because of a sloppy workout.

If this goes happen, Montgomery is the kind of guy who could end up driving Cowboys fans crazy because he's the kind of guy this team has been willing to take in the 2nd round, somebody with a 1st round grade but with some dings.  Dallas is a lot like Cincinnati that way;  the organization is more forgiving.  The difference is that the Bengals have had one of the highest numbers of early round picks in recent years where Dallas has one of the lowest, so the damage from a Bengals miss is less than one by the Cowboys.

TD:  He's a boom-or-bust guy. He defines the term.  From what I've heard, I'd be very surprised if he went even late 1st round.

CN:  What about Jarvis Jones?  I'm hearing conflicting reports on him.  One that a third of the teams have taken him off their boards because of a spinal stenosis concern and another report that he's okay.

TD:  I still have to do more digging on this.  His is a delicate story.  He says he checked out yesterday, but historically guys with any kind of question fall.  We were talking about him as a top-5 pick not that long ago, but teams that pick up there want crystal clean prospects.   Warren Sapp fell out of the top 5 and even the top 10 because he had a black mark by his name.

When you draft early you want clean prospects.  I don't think Jarvis Jones falls out of the 1st round but it's realistic now that he'll fall out of the top 10.

CN:  So here's a player who could wind up sliding to a good team, say a Steelers or a Patriots, who can afford the risk more than most.

TD:  There's no stable template for all 32 teams, whether it's physical issues, mental issues or medical issues. Every team is going to evaluate him differently.  But it only takes one.  Teams do, however, share the philosophy of wanting clean prospects high. I think somewhere around the 14-15 mark, there seems to be this unwritten rule that once you're past the top 15 that teams will roll the dice a little more.  I would not be surprised to see Jarvis Jones outside the top 15.

Next:  potential risers and fallers from the Combine's second day, and a far more detailed comparison of Chance Warmack's and Jonathan Cooper's games.

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Combine Saturday: It's Underway

It's an offensive lineman morning in Indy.  Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper and others will take their turns soon.

I'll have TD on mid-day for a chat,  but in the mean-time, ponder what the O-linemen show in the threads.

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How the Jones' Impulse Shorts the Cowboys Future

One impulsive fellow

We often talk here on Cowboys Nation about prioritizing picks and how the Cowboys rebuilding project always seems to be two years or more in duration.

This week, I did a joint story with Fox Sports Southwest's Bob Sturm and Newsradio 1310 The Ticket's David Newbury on the Cowboys' off-season plans.  My piece, which I'm re-printing here, gets at the reasons why the Cowboys never seem to make up ground.

     *     *     *

In one of his cockier moments during the Super Bowl '90s, Jerry Jones bragged that his wealth was obvious.  If everybody in the world could start with the same amount of money, he explained, the same people who currently had the biggest portfolios would do so again in short time.  Winners were winners.

Let's take Jerry's metaphor and apply it to the world of NFL drafting, where Jones has seen something less than success in his nineteen years as the sole totem atop the Cowboys pole.  (This April draft will be the 20th post Jimmy Johnson!)  In the cap-era NFL, draft picks are the major currency and the league plays a version of Jerry's wealth distribution game, giving each team seven draft picks each spring.  It's then up to the general managers to invest them wisely.  Following up on David Newbury's point that Dallas has burned an excessive amount of high picks in recent years, I decided to chart how all the NFL teams have used their priority picks in rounds 1-3.  These are the building block picks, which produce the most impact players an early starters.  

I created a frame starting in 2007, the first year after Bill Parcells abdicated the Cowboys throne.  In the six subsequent seasons, each NFL team has started with 18 picks, three in each round.  Those teams which lost priority free agents and did not replace them may have realized an extra 3rd round pick or even two in that span.  Here's the list of picks the teams have amassed during Jerry 2.0.  (I've chopped the list a bit for space):

1.   New England  25 picks

2T.  Detroit  23 picks

2T.  Kansas City  23 picks

4T.  Cincinnati  22 picks

4T.  Denver   22 picks

6.   Miami  21 picks

7T. Baltimore 20 picks

7T. Atlanta  20 picks

7.  St. Louis 20 picks

10T.  Green Bay  19 picks

10 T.  NY GIants 19 picks

10 T.  Philadelphia  19 picks

10.T.  Pittsburgh  19 picks...

28T.  Dallas 14 picks

28T  New Orleans 14 picks

28T. Minnesota 14 pick

31T.  NY Jets 13 picks

31T.  Washington 13 picks

Any surprise that Dallas ranks in the bottom quarter of early dratt pick attempts since Jerry reclaimed the helm?  He groused earlier this year that it's unacceptable for the Cowboys to continually finish one win short of the playoffs, as the  team again did in 2012, but look at the pressure he's putting on his scouts and himself by dealing away 1st and 2nd rounders.  He's had eleven fewer early round picks than Bill Belichick.  He's had six fewer than Ozzie Newsome.  In the conference, he's had six fewer picks than the Flacons' Thomas Dimitroff, and five less than the Giants Jerry Reece and the Packers' Ted Thompson.

And every one of those guys knows how to find good football players.

If Jerry had given the organization four or five extra picks up top, might he have a couple more key starters and the depth necessary to find that extra win?   That's why keeping Anthony Spencer is the team's top early off-season priority.  I think he can excel in the 4-3 and his team has made free agency an inordinately large part of its developmental program.

You can't keep pace with guys like Newsome, Reece and Belichick when they get one to two more early round picks than your team every year unless you hit it big in free agency.

It's a vicious cycle towards mediocrity.   The Jones give themselves fewer spins at the draft wheel, chasing bling players like Dez Bryant and Morris Claiborne.  They then find themselves short on depth and overall talent, which sends them to free agency.  They then give out desperation deals to guys like an over-the-hill Terrell Owens or a suspect starter like Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Until the Cowboys stop burning high picks, they give themselves no choice.

Jerry may manage his personal wealth like Warren Buffet, but he's managed his draft pick portfolio like Dez Bryant manages his money.  That's left Dallas fans all the poorer.  

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Pre-Combine Cowboys Musings: Keep Your Eyes on the Safeties

Monte Kiffin has told his Dallas players to watch tape of the Seattle Seahawks.  Does this advice tip where the Cowboys might be looking early on draft weekend?

And what does Seattle do that Kiffin's great Bucs didn't?  What do they possess that his new Cowboys currently lack?

I started to look at some of the Seahawks' 2012 contests and found a lot of similarities between Pete Carroll's fronts and those which Kiffin ran at Tampa Bay for so many years.  I'd say they're identical.  Here are some of the Seahawks opening looks against the Atlanta Falcons in their Divisional Playoff game.  On the first two defensive plays, Seattle lined up in the under 4-3, which is the base front in a Tampa-2:

On subsequent plays, Seattle would line up in the over 4-3, the change-up look in most of Kiffin's Ds:

Seattle runs the same fronts.  They use a slant nose, and lots of under and over 4-3 looks.  Talent-wise, the Cowboys can hang with them.  The Seahawks only had 36 sacks as a team.  Their best rusher, open end Chris Clemons, had 11.0 sacks.  DeMarcus Ware, in a down, injury-riddled season, topped that.  On the closed side, Anthony Spencer had 11.0 sacks.  The Seahawks played the massive Red Bryant there.  He's a terror against the run, but didn't bag a single QB in 2012.

So how did Carroll's latest defense finish 1st in scoring defense?  By using a blueprint remarkably similar to the top-ranked 2003 Cowboys, whom we profiled last week.  Look at the secondaries of the '12 Cowboys and Seahawks and the Mike Zimmer Cowboys.  Note the striking similarities between the the last two teams at the safety spots.

Position         '12 Cowboys            '12 Seahawks            '03 Cowboys

LCB             Brandon Carr            Richard Marshall        Terence Newman

SS              Barry Church             Kam Chancellor          Roy Williams

FS               Gerald Sensabaugh   Earl Thomas              Darren Woodson

RCB             Morris Claiborne       Brandon Browner       Mario Edwards

Dallas matches up to the Seahawks on the edges.  Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are not as big as Richard Marshall and Chris Clemons, but both Cowboys can play press coverage.  

The tell for me is at safety.  The Seahawks possess a pair eerily similar to the '03 Cowboys duo.  At the strong safety, the Seahawks have Kam Chancellor, a 6'3", 232 lb. monster.  He's the power player who can be a fourth linebacker in the box.  He's one of the few safeties who can match up size wise with the newer, sleeker class of tight ends who make a living overpowering corners.  Chancellor is a much better player going forward, but I was told last year by Wes Bunting that Chancellor made his name at his college All-Star game by showing impressive red-zone quickness.  He can track the tight ends there, and that's where the Jimmy Graham-types can be so dangerous.

Dallas had a similar player in Roy Williams, who went 6'0", 222 lbs. in his heyday.  He excelled working in the box.  He was good going forward, but was tight-hipped and not as good in space.

Williams rarely had to play deep because he was backed by Darren Woodson.  Woodson was also a bigger safety but his game was based on range and instincts.  The Seahawks have a smaller version of Woodson in Earl Thomas.  He played cornerback at Texas and possesses great coverage and ball skills.  The Seahawks  use him in the box in coverage on slot receivers and on backs.  

What he offers Seattle is the opportunity to play more man-to-man and more cover-3 than the typical Monte Kiffin Tampa Bay teams or Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears teams did.   Those squads tilted more towards base cover-2 schemes.  

Because Thomas can get to the sidelines from a deep centerfield, you see Seattle pressing with Marshall and with Browner, in a coverage Kiffin calls china.  It's a man-to-man scheme with a safety high, and the second safety taking the H-back.  It's a pressure front that leaves the Will linebacker, Bruce Carter in Dallas' case, playing a rover role in the box. This is Seattle's primary look when it faces two-tight end sets.

Seattle also runs a lot of cover-3 which has the corners playing in off-man with a single safety high and the other safety rolling down into a hook zone in the underneath coverage.  

Thomas made two big plays from centerfield in Seattle's two playoff games.  He stole a Robert Griffin bomb in the wild-card win over Washington, roaming deep to his right sideline.  The following week he picked Matt Ryan in a similar part of the field, helping the Seahawks erase a 20 point Falcons lead in Seattle's narrow loss.  

If Monte Kiffin wants his 2013 Cowboys to play like the 2012 Seahawks, he has to know that the missing ingredient is an Earl Thomas-type playmaker.  Getting one would let Kiffin press more with Carr and Claiborne, which plays to their strengths.  It would let him keep eight men in the box and pressure passing attacks and running attacks alike.  

I'm fully convinced the Cowboys covet a play-making 3-technique, given the age at defensive tackle, and would jump at a Shariff Floyd or a Sheldon Richardson if one were available in the 1st round.  Given Kiffin's comments, I'm becoming more convinced that guys like Kenny Vaccaro and Johnathan Cyprien sit high on his priority list in rounds 1 and 2. 

Keep your eyes on the safeties this weekend.

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Countdown to the Combine, Part 3: Do It Yourself D-Back Scouting

Texas S Kenny Vaccaro

In part three of Cowboys Nation's pre-Combine series, draft analyst TD gives runs down mid-round safety prospects and outlines how to scout D-backs on TV.

Cowboys Nation:  Talk about  safety. We've discussed Kenny Vaccaro and Jonathan Cyprien in recent weeks.  Who comes after them?  If the Cowboys don't pick a safety in the first two rounds, who should be available for them to consider, starting in round three?  Concentrate more on what we'll call the "space safeties," guys who can tackle, who have good range, who can track a football once the quarterback has released it.

TD: Looking at guys who can run, start with T.J. McDonald from USC.  We know he can run in a straight line, but I want to see his fluidity.  Can he turn smoothly, and change directions?

If you're looking at mid-round prospects who don't necessarily run forward exceptionally well, but who  have some fluidity on the football field, you're looking at guys like Tony Jefferson from Oklahoma.  He's a compact player, about 6'", 210, but the question is about his overall smoothness and range.

Phillip Thomas from Fresno State is also around 210 but he's more angular.  We've talked about Jonathan Cyprien from Florida International.  He shows good ball skills, but he's listed at 4.6 right now.  Can he run 4.55 or faster and erase those lingering concerns about his speed?

Moving down the list Robert Lester from Alabama has fallen a bit.  He's 6'2" and in that 210 range.  Can he cover that deep half?

And then you have more guys who can definitely run fast like Syracuse' Shamarko Thomas.  He's 5'11", 210 and he can run in the 4.4 range.  Duke Williams from Nevada is another guy who should run well.

With these guys there are two things to watch.  One, can they post a good 40 time and next, can they turn and run?  If they can't do both they're going to struggle trying to play the deep middle or deep half in coverage.

CN:  Fans get to watch the drills now.  When they watch the drills, they're hit with a lot of jargon.  Can these players turn-and-run, can they click-and-close, can they flip their hips?  When the fans are watching guys in shorts drilling against air, and they're having balls thrown at them, where should they focus their attention?

TD:  You want to focus most of your attention from the waist down on these guys.  When they're asked to sit into their drops, can they keep their base down?  When they're asked to turn and run, a lot of players want to pop upright immediately and get narrow with their base, which makes them choppy with their footwork.  This takes away from their burst.

You want to see if players keep good width between their feet, and if they can keep their knees bent?  Think of sprinters.  When they come out of their blocks they try to stay as low as possible to create a burst.  You don't see sprinters come out of a three-point stance and get upright immediately.

Carry that to defensive backs.  You want to see them stay low so they can build speed quickly in their backpedal and on their turns.  You want to see good balance, foot separation and bent knees, so they can play as fast as they time going in a straight line.

This is where you'll see a lot of separation among the prospects, when they hit the field drills.  You'll see guys who can't play as fast as they time in the 40 because they can't stay low.  Conversely, you'll see guys who drill faster than they time in the 40 yard dash because they can maintain their drop and explode out of their breaks.

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Cowboys Pre-Combine Notes, Part 2: Who's Got the Buzz?

Ezekiel Ansah

Part two of this week's draft chat with Cowboys Nation's draft expert TD summarizes players carrying some hype into this weekend's Combine.

Cowboys Nation: Give us some names to track at the Combine who are not obvious players.  Guys who are about to make their breaks.

TD:  It's time to talk about the juniors.  It's the first time we're going to see a lot of these guys.  Start with Robert Woods from USC.  I think he's a very natural receiver who was overlooked because the Trojans had a bad year.  At the same time Marqise Lee got most of the attention.  This is a place for Woods to move up the receiver chain.

Another receiver who could make a move is Marquess Wilson from Washington State.  He was booted off the team but he's a track guy, who's really athletic.

A big question is the health of Florida State corner Xavier Rhodes.  If he's 100 percent, I think he's a top 15 pick. He's 6'2", 217.  He can press and play a physical game.  He really gave it to Michael Floyd two years ago when they matched up.

These are three skill position guys who could generate a lot of buzz, who I look forward to viewing.

CN:  Any other players generating a lot of buzz pre-Combine?

TD:  Running backs never get a ton of attention, but people I talk to are really impressed with Eddie Lacy.  He's not on Trent Richardson's level, but he's separated himself from the rest of the running backs.

Washington's Desmond Trufant helped himself as much as any player at the Senior Bowl.  He's a legit 1st rounder now, according to people I talk to.  That's an interesting development.  He came in as a 2nd rounder but he's a pretty solid 1st rounder now.

At wide receiver the hot guy is Tavon Austin from West Virginia.  So many teams are looking for a slot receiver, the Percy Harvin type.  If teams in the bottom of the round don't get some other guys they're targeting, Austin is seen as a solid fall-back option.

At the same time, with the evolution of the tight end position, Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert, from most of the teams I'm talking to, could go 1st round because they can play that Gronkowski type game, and be on-the-line Ys, or flexed-into-the-slot Ys.  Both can win in the run and pass games.

It's a good offensive tackle group, and as talented as D.J. Fluker is, he's still jumped by Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson because those two are much better pass blockers, even though Fluker is a much better run blocker. These run-first tackles are the guys who could likely fall a bit draft weekend.

CN:  For all the talk of the pistol formation and zone reads and new-age quarterbacks, it seems that on the offensive line, what teams want is what I'll call the Tom Brady template, guys who can move laterally and can protect a pocket for a Tom Brady type who runs a lot of shotgun and throws a lot of quick 3 and 5 step drop patterns.

TD:  Yes, and you're seeing a similar effect on defense as well.  Here we are two weeks into February.  Who would have thought six weeks ago that there would be any inside linebacker mentioned in the same breath as Manti Te'o?  I know he's had the off-the-field problem but many NFL teams consider LSU's Kevin Minter a better prospect than Manti Te'o because he's more athletic, is better in coverage and runs better sideline to sideline.

Te'o is better as a 2-down player, but teams see Minter as a 3-down guy and every NFL team I've talked to considers him a better prospect for that reason.

One last teaser.  More and more of the teams that I talk to think that Ezekiel Ansah will wind up as a top 5-7 player once the Combine is over.  He could have that Aldon Smith-like rise.  Look at the competition at his position.  Compare Ansah to Bjoern Werner.  Werner will probably be a better first-year player, but project down the line.  Werner might be an 8-10 sack guy where Ansah would be a 15 sack a year player if he reaches his ceiling.

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Pre-Combine Cowboys Cheat Sheet: Mid-Round Beef

Missouri Southern DT
Brandon Williams

Today, Cowboys Nation begins a series on the up-coming NFL draft Combine in Indianapolis.  Our draft expert TD provides a list of offensive and defensive linemen to consider in the middle rounds, the 3rd through the 5th.

Cowboys Nation:  Let's move to defensive linemen after round two.  Let's say the board breaks in such a way that Dallas takes an offensive lineman and a safety in the first two rounds.  Who might they consider on the defensive line going forward?  Talk to us about defensive tackles and ends.

TD: At tackle, one guy carrying a lot of buzz is Illinois' Akeem Spence. I've heard his name a couple of times from NFL sources.  He's 6'1", 305, gets off the football, creates negative plays.

Bennie Logan, is an underclassman from LSU is 6'4", 295.  He got some good production this year and I think he should be there in the 4th round.  He's a good athlete.

Brandon Williams from Missouri Southern is the small school guy intriguing teams right now.  He's 6'2", 341. I think he's going to have a really good Combine.  If he can run a 40 around 5.0 seconds, he could shoot up into that 2nd-3rd round range.

Some later prospects are William Campbell from Michigan.  He's a taller guy about 6'5", 318.   Add Kapron Lewis-Moore from Notre Dame.  He's the player who got hurt in the national title game, 6'4", 306.  A.J. Francis from Maryland is 6'4", 321.  He's a 4-3 nose tackle type.

There is some good depth overall and some good juniors declared.

CN:  What about 4-3 defensive end?

TD:  One intriguing guy is Devin Taylor from South Carolina.  He's 6'7", 275 and has some short-area quickness.  He can probably play two downs, but it's a question right now of how good he can be?  He could play 3-downs early if you just let him bull rush, but can he develop beyond that?

Michael Buchanan from Illinois is 6'2", 253.  There are some teams who give him a 1st round grade on athleticism, but there are questions about why he's not producing consistently.  When you go just off performance he should have a low-round grade.  I think teams will split the difference and he'll go in between there.

William Gholston from Michigan State has a chance.  Corey Lemonier is more of an edge rusher, but I think all of these guys start coming into play in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

CN:  Let's flip it over.  Once we get past Warmack, Cooper and Warford, who are some guards who should come into consideration in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds?  You've said and some of the other draft people I've spoken to say this is a good guard class.

TD: It is, but last year was one of the best guard classes in recent memory. This one isn't that good,but it is good.  Larry Warford from Kentucky is a 2nd-3rd round player.  Syracuse's Justin Pugh looks like a 3rd round player.  He could move up just a bit but he's 6'5", 301 and looks like he could be a solid pass protector right away.

Arkansas' Alvin Bailey is an underclassman.  He's 6'5", 315.  These are the type of guys who sound like tackles, but you're seeing more of these body types, the taller guards, moving inside because they can pass protect well.  Eric Herman from Ohio is another one.  Jeff Baca from UCLA is 6'3", 305.  Hugh Thornton from Illinois is a bit squattier, at 6'3", 315.  All of these guys that I mentioned have the athleticism to slide laterally and hold up.

When you're looking for linemen in that 3rd or 4th round that interior pass protection skill is what you look for over a guy who's simply going to come off the ball and try to maul you.

CN:  Dallas fans know this.  They've seen the abuse that Tony Romo has taken from interior pressure and the need for this team to get linemen who can keep a pocket clean.

TD:  I mentioned Chris Jacobson from Pitt before.  He's about 6'2", 315 lbs.  He's not a great pass protector but he's a very good run blocker with a history of injuries.  Those are two two knocks against him.

Today, you can be a so-so run blocker, but if you can pass protect you can play early because teams can teach you to run block.  If you can't pass block, it's going to be hard for you to get drafted.

Tuesday:  Players with pre-Combine buzz.
Wednesday:  Mid-round safeties and how to scout D-backs from home.

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Offensive Depth Chart Duet - Analyzing the Cowboys Front Office

Scouting the Cowboys Front Office

It is best not to forget that when teams are looking at the draft, "Best Player Available" is almost always influenced by perceived "team needs". A type of self-fulfilling prophecy, teams in need of defensive tackles tend to scout a lot of them. Scouts have reputations invested in them, a yearning to fix what is wrong with the team is in their grasp if only they can find "the guy". Other positions are not scouted as deeply. More time looking at tape for a third, fourth or tenth viewing, is spent looking at defensive tackles, your team's position of need. The effects are not striking in the first round, where less players are available, but in later rounds it begins to stand out, it dominates the direction and makeup of the teams draft. This is not a discussion of drafting for need versus BPA, which is better, or why, rather a setup of the draft day environment to explain what will happen, regardless of intent, in order to explain why it is critical to ascertain what the people at Valley Ranch think the team needs actually are. As a wise man once said, "You tell me what someone is hungry for, and I got a pretty good shot of telling you what's for supper."

Another cliche is "Beauty is in the eye of the holder", so are "team needs". As groups, fans and coaches can be quite similar in their viewpoint of the teams players. It's about getting it done on the field, but we can get sentimental as loyalty can lead us down dangerous paths with players past their useful years. Then there are the view points of people who man the front office. Scouts, General Managers, some Owners and Coaches to a degree, have reputations staked to specific players they back. It is important to note, the more players you have backed that are on a team, the more gratis you have with ownership and the press, which equates to job security and increased pay levels. You influence playing opportunities for the guys you back. In the end, position by position, a convergence of pay level and performance level, counter balanced by the backing of Cowboys insiders, is what determines where the Cowboys brain trust will target it's "Team Needs" focus this off season, and more importantly, on draft day. One of our best tools is to break out the next round of Depth Charts in order to help focus our sights on what the Dallas Suits are possibly thinking.

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Depth Chart Breakdown

QB Outlook: Let's jump to a position with a ton of emotion. In this specific instance, fan emotion may influence management decision making, as Jerry Jones has a performance incentive to keep the fan base hot in regards to ticket and merchandise sales, along with national and local television ratings, on the decline for the first time since Jerry took the reins of the team. A QB of the future is needed. Is it this year? Regardless, with Romo getting an extension and Orton firmly on-board, look for management to continue the team focus on "wining with Romo".

QB Front Office View: If a highly regarded QB drops, 2nd to 4th round. If one they have eyes for is available in the 7th round, they will snap them up, otherwise look for another year of heavy UDFA attention to the position.

QB Forcast: A pick in any round is possible with heavy UDFA attention if not. If a QB they like falls to them at any point past the second round, look for them to make the move.

RB Outlook:  The RB position is not deep, with Felix Jones leaving via Free Agency. Felix had his uses, and there is a long shot chance of him returning with the Cowboys, yet not likely. Dallas needs a second RB and the draft is the cheapest place to find one.

RB Front Office View: The Scouting Department would receive high gratis indeed if either Dunbar or Tanner could step forward and be a solid number two, and injury replacement number one, that can pass protect as well as move the pile in short yardage. That may be the fall back position in interviews, but not the reality. Vickers was not the answer at FB. Due to so many needs in other areas he gets another year unless ......

RB Forecast: Draft value depth charts indicate the Cowboys should be able to draft a solid RB2 w/requisite skills in rounds two through five. This pick will be one of the first ones reflective of  how comfortable the Cowboys feel with their first one or two selections. Did they hit? If they did, then they should feel the freedom to make these type of "talent picks" that pay in the later rounds. A FA signing is also possible and would free up a draft pick. With former Browns, and current Chiefs castoff Peyton Hillis looming in the ether, he could possibly be reunited with former Browns RB coach, Gary Brown, giving the Cowboys a thumper at the goal line who can also pick up the blitz. A mid round pick at FB is a dark horse possibility as well.

WR Outlook: Austin was given/earned a big contract. He did not have a great 2012, but the stats defined him as being quite serviceable. He stays. Harris is on the upswing, Beasley is intriguing, Bryant is starting to tap his Hall of Fame talent, Benford is still developing, Coale is now healthy and Armstrong has not actually been looked at.

WR Front Office View: This position is deep, with players that have various Dallas front office personnel directly involved. They will look at what we have in Beasley, what will Coale be able to deliver with a healthy off season and camp? Armstrong is this years Andre Holmes. Wind this toy up and see if he figures it out.

WR Forecast: UDFA additions only. Austin may allow his contract to be restructured. If a pick is made it would be a surprise talent drop situation anywhere from round five through seven. This isn't likely. Look for UDFA signings.

TE Outlook: Witten has a few years left in him. A replacement must be prepared, Hanna is it. If Hanna realizes his potential before Witten tails off, the offense will flourish. A blocking TE is needed as part of the solution in order for the running game to get back on track. The Cowboys came close last year, losing out to the Vikings. The hunt must continue.

TE Front Office View: Witten is .... well, .... Witten. Hanna is the man who is being groomed for transition. So far, so good. We need a blocking TE. Phillips is the fall back after he test the market.

TE Forecast: There are a few TE draft picks the Cowboys could be tempted to make that could possibly contribute as rookies in 2013. Stanford's 6'8" Levine Toilolo could very well be available in the sixth or seventh rounds, otherwise there will be solid looks at the players on the roster (Cochart and Smith) combined with constant scouring of waiver wire possibilities.

OT Outlook: Smith is our LT. Parnell is the RT of the future. We need a solid swing tackle and a fourth option that could ideally work from the scout team. An OT/TE3? Rare.

OT Front Office View: Parnell could be the RT of the future and would validate some love for a scouting staff that has not excelled along the offensive line. Then there is Doug Free's contract, which was a leveraged deal at the time. Let's be honest, can Free recover and be our RT? No. Can we get value from Free? In any manner? Throw me a freaking bone here!

OT Forecast: If Parnell is perceived as the RT of the future, ideally you don't prefer a rookie backing him up. A veteran that could perform in a swing tackle role would be perfect. Wait! We just just described Doug Free. Ms. February (pick the year), got over paid for acting roles also. A few playmates could actually play a part. On a good day, so can Doug Free. Not a value move, but with the heavy cap penalty that would be incurred next year for cutting him, look for Free to provide competition according to interviews with Front Office Personnel, and backup capability in actuality. Weems and Simmons should provide possibilities in a sleeper vein, with one making the practice squad. Look for UDFA attention at this position for 2013 as the Cowboys move forward with the Parnell experiment.

C Outlook: Costa had a scratch year. The one game he played was productive. Killer K was also bitten by the injury bug and Cook never got a solid chance at the position, coming to the team as late as he did and being thrown to the wolves at Center and Right Guard. The Center position was not as weak as the Guard position, but the Cowboys have needed a totem pole in the center of the line for years. There is never a bad time to find one.

C Front Office View: The coaching staff believes in Costa. They know what he brings, and that he can get pushed around some. He makes good calls, he is not susceptible to mistakes. Killer K is a quality backup with a nasty attitude who has yet to be fully explored due to injuries incurred last year. Cook was a solid find/acquisition that could pay off big if he flourishes late in his career, if not he is a solid, versatile backup. Currently we are in need of a strong presence anywhere along the center of the line.

C Forecast: If Barrett Jones is available via a trade down scenario (a tough deal to make), the Cowboys will have a new Center for the future. More likely they will focus on the Guard position, relying on the depth at center as the three talented, but physically limited trio competes for starting honors. A UDFA signing or two would then be imminent. If Barrett is somehow available in the second round a league wide investigation could possibly be implemented.

OG Outlook: The Cowboys biggest need position is a toss up of OG, Safety (50/50) and Center. DL is close behind and an argument could always be made for the position with the most current longevity, GM. But the Cowboys prospects for a Super Bowl revolve more tightly around the OL than any other group, the OG play in particular. There is depth in this draft at the Guard position. The Cowboys are challenged in the middle, unable to pass protect for the QB or open holes for short yardage runs, it is a pressing need. Womack may be available at eighteen.

OG Front Office View: This position is a thorn in the side of the Front Office and will continue to be until it can be solved. They need to come up with a winner on the interior of the Offensive Line and they need to do it now. The backers of Livings and Bernadeau will fight hard for another, injury free off-season, to prove themselves. Regardless, a high draft pick will be spent at either the Offensive Guard or Center positions. Perhaps both.

OG Forecast: Unable to give up on both Livings and Bernadeau in the same year, due in large part to the same Cap restraints that made them both attractive targets in the first place, look for the focus to be put on RG as Livings is given more time, or LG if Leary proves he can carry the load early. This leads to a high pick at OG if no pick is made at C in round one. A possible OG pick in round three our four could also be a made if a value opportunity presents itself. Leary will get a more solid look at RG, Bernadeau will get more rope due to lack of talent, while Arkin gets a final look and could be released before the regular season when a talented player steps up.

Conclusion: The big issue, is not defining that we need upgrades at four of the five OL positions, it is in dealing with the reality that replacing multiple positions along the Offensive Line is a monumental task, and not one in sync with the goal of getting a Super Bowl out of Romo, Witten and Ware, over the next two years. It is looking like the most likely Offensive Draft Picks would be in the frame work of the following probable scenarios:

*) Trade down for (C) Barrett followed with a possible pick at OG in round three or four, a RB at either four or five with a possible QB pick in rounds three through five with a TE in rounds six or seven. A trade down would net the cowboys at least one more pick, and they need it. (2-5 picks)

*) OG Womack at 18. RB between rounds three through five, a QB in same with a TE in rounds six or seven. (2-4 picks)

*) OG in rounds two or three, RB in rounds three through five, QB in rounds three through six, TE in rounds six or seven.

The above scenarios are the most probable, both leaving plenty of picks for the defensive side of the ball, including the coveted first round selection, perhaps making defense the more numerous of the draft selections based on the full team analysis, as we will discuss in our next post. What say you Cowboys Nation?

On Twitter: Steven Van Over

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